Home field advantage may not be much in baseball but it does exist. With proper motivation and one-sided betting action on the road team, value can be had betting on home teams. We all heard the saying that it is tough to sweep a home team. Checking how home teams did in the third game of a series after losing the first two games, we see the home teams bite back and go +18.5 units over the past 3 seasons. As an underdog, our team is a much better value play at +12 units, undervalued by about 6 points. We all know people love to bet on favorites. In fact, novice gamblers like to stick with what works and will continue betting on the same team until that team lets them down. So if the road team was a favorite in the first two games of the series and their backers won money, then it would be sufficient to say that most of the betting handle would go to the road team in the third game. We were right, our team is now undervalued by an average of 9 points. Another thing people love to do is bet favorites on the run line to lessen their risk amount and increase the payout. So if our team was to lose on the run line in the first two games then certainly more betting handle would be on the road team in Game 3. Again, we were right and this added constraint to our system finds our underdog undervalued by an average of 15 points! So as you look to bet on teams, it is not sufficient enough to evaluate the game itself. Spend a little time to analyze where the betting action is going and fade the public for value. |
