It's still too early to tell for certain, but America's housing boom may be showing signs of slowing down significantly. One indication is that U.S. consumers have been acquiring less debt in recent years and seem to be more nervous about acquiring more debt in the near future, judging by the results of a recent Experian-Gallup Poll. That debt doesn't include first mortgage debt, which is unavoidable and has continued to increase significantly over the last few years due to rising prices. Some of those price rises have been dramatic, and even startling, such as a doubling of the median price of homes in Los Angeles County in the four-year period between 2002 and 2006. For the first time in history, the median price in LA County rose above the half million dollar mark, hitting $506,000. Although the rises in most areas of the United States have been far less spectacular, the fact remains that most home buyers are paying significantly more for their mortgages than they would have just a few years ago. The poll, called Experian-Gallup Personal Credit Index survey, indicated that more than 70% of American consumers surveyed thought the countrys housing bubble is due to burst within the next year. In an interesting twist, however, more than two-thirds of those same consumers (68%) didn't think the bubble would burst in their own area during that time. Those conflicting survey results are an indication that most Americans are also conflicted about what the future may hold for the countrys economy over the next twelve months. Another sign that American consumers are nervous about an impending housing price collapse could be found in the fact that only 2% of respondents told the Experian-Gallup poll that they planned to tap into the increased value of their homes through home equity loans or lines of credit during the next six months. Another very small percentage (only 2%) said they were planning to refinance their homes during that same time period. Those figures would seem to indicate that a large number of American homeowners don't believe that now is the time to take on any more debt. But does that mean the overall economy is slowing down and that the home price boom are over? Not necessarily, but it would seem to indicate that American consumer confidence has waned significantly. Either way, it's a safe bet that economists will be keeping a close eye on the market for trends. Copyright 2006 Jeanette J. Fisher |
